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Sunday, May 27, 2018

My FABE Tennis' Pick for the 2018 Men's French Open Title: Rafael Nadal



When I looked into the men's draw of the 2018 French Open, it seems even the universe has conspired and is giving Rafael Nadal a very good chance of winning title #11 - a dominance that is mind-boggling in the sport of tennis, considering that clay being a European surface and a game dominated by European players can be dominated for so long by just one man.
By using the 'objective' head-to-head, guess who is his expected opponent in the semifinals? John Isner.
Apparently, John has a better head-to-head (for the past three years) than Marin Cilic and Kevin Anderson. And we all know that John Isner is not exactly a tour-de-force on clay.

As for the quarterfinals, on paper, his expected opponent is Feliciano Lopez. Jack Sock and RIchard Gasquet are his other possible opponents, all tough players, but maybe not so for Rafa, on clay.
Dominic Thiem seems to be the biggest stumbling block to his 11th title, and all that drama could possibly climax if they do meet in the finals.
For the next two weeks before the men's finals, let's just sit back and enjoy the Rafa Nadal's RG Roadshow, round after round.
In the quarterfinals, Nadal's expected opponent

My FABE Tennis' Pick for the 2018 Men's French Open Title: John Isner



It was quite a surprise to see John Isner become a top pick for the 2018 men's French Open's title using their current head-to-head in the draw.
Apparently, John has had a better head-to-head (for the past three years only) than Tomas Berdych (3R), Juan Martin del Potro (4R) and Marin CIlic (QF) - his expected opponents on those rounds, on paper. That is the reason why he's tipped to be the semi-final opponent of Rafael Nadal in this year's French Open.
However, his dismal performance this clay season may cast a cloud of doubt on that prediction. However, it also shows the possibility of what can happen if John just believes he can play well in clay, like in the other surfaces.

My FABE Tennis' Pick for the 2018 Men's French Open Title: Nick Kyrgios


It was such a surprise on my part to see Nick Kyrgios name come up as the player most likely to get to the semifinal stage of their side of the draw!
Using their current head-to-heads, Kyrgios had 'paper wins' over Federico Delbonis of Argentina (3R), David Goffin of Belgium (4R) and Novak Djokovic of Serbia (QF). He is picked to meet Dominic Thiem of Austria in the semifinals.
In reality though, Kyrgios has a very spotty clay court record so we will have to see if he can pull this off here in RG this year - in probably the most crowded part of the men's draw.
Dimitrov, Djokovic, Goffin, Ferrer, Bautista Agut and Verdasco - how Kyrgios came on top of all them is definitely paper statistics fantasy!

My FABE Tennis' Pick for the 2018 Men's French Open Title: Dominic Thiem


Now, if there had to be someone who can wrest the 11th title of the French Open from Rafael Nadal, it could be Dominic Thiem of Austria.
And I think the boy is ready to take his place, considering that he has reached the semifinals of this tournament the last two years. With Nick Kyrgios (at least on paper) as his SF opponent, a place against Rafael Nadal in the finals is a likely event.
Of course, at least on paper, he may have to meet Gilles Muller of Luxembourg (3R), Sam Querrey of the USA (4R) and Alexander Zverer of Germany - the OTHER guy who can wrest the title from Rafa - in the QFs.

Pity both players had to be in the same draw, but at least it will show that one of them has to top the other, before they can meet Nadal.
Another dangerous player in this draw is Stan Wawrinka, last year's finalist - another guy you can never count out of the equation, especially in this surface which he has already won before. So, watch out for him as well.